Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb22…1b8c other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$202 (+8%) realized +$241 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -12.8% -21.1% 56% 44% -8.8%
≤30d 9 -12.8% -21.1% 56% 44% -8.8%
≤90d 9 -12.8% -21.1% 56% 44% -8.8%
all 9 -12.8% -21.1% 56% 44% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 44% -8.8%
10% -28.7% 11% -17.5%
15% -35.6% 11% -25.5%
20% -41.9% 11% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$59 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$241
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $96 $77 −$19 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $106 −$48 -45%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $105 −$74 -71%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $104 +$22 +21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,044 +$120 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $207 +$26 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $439 +$25 +6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $91 +$59 +65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $47 −$8 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 22¢ $105 14m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $58 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 6¢ $31 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 13¢ $106 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $105 16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 76¢ $126 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $104 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 79¢ $699 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 53¢ $465 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $522 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $522 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $233 38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 20¢ $50 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $105 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 61¢ $284 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $189 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 63¢ $130 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $207 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $146 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $52 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $39 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 15¢ $40 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $105 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.53 · official $161.07 · 29 history records