Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DB 0xdb18…2b21 politics 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$67 (+3%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +106% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +87% what you keep after slip
Net edge+87%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 42% +$260
politics 27% −$5
other 12% +$1
tech 12% −$5
crypto 6% +$27
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+86.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -1.5% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 11 -1.5% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.6%
all 20 +106.4% +86.7% 30% 15% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +86.7% 15% +1.6%
10% +68.8% 10% -8.1%
15% +52.5% 10% -17.0%
20% +37.6% 10% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +106% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +214% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$4 · ×14.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.72 per $1 lost it wins $6.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage272d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 19 $9 $0 -2%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 19 $252 −$2 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 19 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 15 $101 −$1 -1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $41 −$1 -2%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 15 $101 −$1 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 15 $51 −$1 -3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 06 $556 +$210 +38%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $222 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $255 +$42 +16%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $246 +$8 +3%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 10 $245 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 20? Oct 21 $98 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 10, 8AM ET Oct 12 $28 +$62 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 8AM ET Oct 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 57¢ $28 1h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 27¢ $3 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 74¢ $4 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $45 9d
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 87¢ $44 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 63¢ $32 9d
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 13¢ $6 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 39¢ $20 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $46 9d
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 93¢ $47 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $46 9d
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY No $4 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $4 9d
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 93¢ $40 9d
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY No $3 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 74¢ $3 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $45 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 10d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $46 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 14¢ $7 13d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 87¢ $10 13d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 87¢ $33 13d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 12¢ $6 13d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 13d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 88¢ $44 13d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $17 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records