Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb18…d44c other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$11 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% +$11
tech 29% $0
other 13% −$3
economics 2% +$1
finance 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 1 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤90d 14 +3.8% -6.1% 79% 21% -5.4%
all 15 +3.9% -6.0% 80% 20% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 20% -5.4%
10% -15.0% 0% -14.5%
15% -23.2% 0% -22.7%
20% -30.8% 0% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.71 per $1 lost it wins $5.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)15 / 26
History coverage122d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in June 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Dreamcash FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 89¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 93¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 96¢ 85¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 95¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Printr FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 93¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 85¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $1 $0 +9%
Will the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $140 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A May 04 $1 $0 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 01 $5 $0 +4%
Sentio FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 29 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat Apr 29 $8 +$1 +15%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Apr 29 $51 +$11 +21%
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 29 $2 $0 -4%
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 29 $7 −$1 -14%
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 29 $8 −$1 -15%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $1 $0 +22%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 06 $2 $0 +2%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Feb 25 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $5 3d
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 202 BUY No 91¢ $2 3d
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 3d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants BUY Mumbai Indians 91¢ $1 49d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 100¢ $140 49d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A BUY Yes 97¢ $1 50d
Will the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 96¢ $1 50d
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY No 95¢ $2 54d
Printr FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $1 54d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $5 54d
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat SELL Yes 36¢ $6 54d
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 SELL Yes 63¢ $33 54d
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 85¢ $2 54d
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 75¢ $6 54d
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? SELL No 69¢ $7 54d
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $4 75d
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 SELL Yes 80¢ $4 83d
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 SELL Yes 75¢ $4 83d
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 SELL Yes 72¢ $4 83d
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat BUY Yes 29¢ $5 84d
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat SELL No 71¢ $4 84d
Dreamcash FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 88¢ $3 85d
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 SELL Yes 67¢ $13 88d
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $3 94d
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 87¢ $2 94d
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $2 94d
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 85¢ $1 94d
Dreamcash FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $1 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.49 · official $122.49 (match) · 66 history records