Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb15…3d37 crypto 447 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (211 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8,132 (-28%) realized −$8,132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%204W / 243L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day211.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$252
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (211 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 378 -26.3% -33.4% 36% 36% -41.7%
≤30d 447 -7.7% -16.5% 46% 45% -8.7%
≤90d 447 -7.7% -16.5% 46% 45% -8.7%
all 447 -7.7% -16.5% 46% 45% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover211.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 45% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 45% -17.5%
15% -31.8% 45% -25.4%
20% -38.5% 44% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +49% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$60 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses204 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)447 / 447
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$65
Trades / day211.1
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 447 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $48 +$52 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$21 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $19 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $17 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records