Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb15…8393 sports 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (138 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$16,184 (+5%) realized +$20,258 · open −$4,074
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%62W / 111L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,237per market
Trades / day138.0pace
Fees−$5,515est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11,251
7 days+$13,988
14 days−$19,637
30 days+$14,423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$20,405
other 10% −$642
crypto 2% +$966
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (138 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -12.9% -21.2% 20% 18% +0.9%
≤30d 173 +19.4% +8.0% 36% 34% -6.3%
≤90d 173 +19.4% +8.0% 36% 34% -6.3%
all 173 +19.4% +8.0% 36% 34% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover138.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.0% 34% -6.3%
10% -2.3% 32% -15.2%
15% ← realistic here -11.8% 28% -23.4%
20% -20.4% 27% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$2,191) neutral
Persistence
early +42% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,856 vs −$1,465 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$20,258
Unrealized−$4,074
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses62 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$5,515
Open positions2
Markets (closed)173 / 152
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$2,237
Trades / day138.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Chicago Sky 20¢ 0¢ $2,078 $5 −$2,073 (-100%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2,007 $5 −$2,002 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-21? Jun 18 $1,269 −$1,269 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? Jun 18 $390 −$390 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 18 $1,029 −$1,029 -100%
Real Racing Club vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Portland Timbers vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 18 $498 −$498 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 18 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 18 $180 −$180 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 18 $164 −$164 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 18 $390 −$390 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $640 −$640 -100%
Vålerenga Fotball vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? Jun 18 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-17? Jun 18 $128 −$128 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $218 −$218 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 18 $468 −$468 -100%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $196 −$196 -100%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,310 −$1,300 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1,000 +$2,000 +200%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,800 +$7,200 +257%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,876 +$166 +6%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $720 −$720 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,000 +$6,000 +150%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,700 −$3,700 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,500 +$7,500 +300%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,100 +$7,900 +376%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,022 −$1,976 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,800 −$3,800 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,931 +$6,106 +155%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3,500 +$6,300 +180%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,700 −$3,700 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $9,300 +$15,700 +169%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $5,000 −$3,372 -67%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $270 −$270 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4,000 −$3,513 -88%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 13 $3,100 −$3,100 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $1,901 −$1,901 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $671 −$659 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $622 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $676 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $38 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $150 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $282 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 13¢ $197 4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 13¢ $3 4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 13¢ $0 4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 13¢ $275 4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 13¢ $4 4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 13¢ $0 4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 13¢ $0 4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 13¢ $439 4h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Panama 13¢ $392 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $0 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $14 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $0 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $0 4h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 20¢ $2,098 5h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 19¢ $29 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 30¢ $1,647 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.22 · official $10.22 (match) · 3500 history records