Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb11…bd94 crypto 626 markets active 0h ago coverage 407d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+1%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%279W / 347L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$181
economics 0% −$27
other 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -7.4% -16.2% 64% 52% -8.4%
≤30d 318 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 42% -6.2%
≤90d 333 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 42% -6.0%
all 626 -15.1% -23.1% 45% 37% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 37% -11.5%
10% -30.5% 31% -20.0%
15% -37.2% 24% -27.7%
20% -43.4% 19% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses279 / 347
Open positions0
Markets (closed)626 / 626
History coverage407d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 626 Trades
no open positions (295 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$26 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$7 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$29 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$2 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $157 +$56 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $233 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $206 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $153 +$30 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $154 +$21 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $128 +$26 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $144 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $307 −$12 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$35 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $214 −$52 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $155 +$40 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$57 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 01 $15 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 01 $4 +$7 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 01 $15 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $13 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $13 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $20 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $24 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $46 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $14 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $15 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $17 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $13 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $31 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $9 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $34 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1618 history records