Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:10:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb0f…325d crypto 630 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,666 (-4%) realized −$2,716 · open −$950
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate24%152W / 477L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,078now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days+$329
14 days+$427
30 days+$619
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$1,071
crypto 16% −$2,566
sports 16% −$1,272
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 33 -1.8% -11.1% 97% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 629 -24.2% -31.4% 24% 18% -13.3%
all 629 -24.2% -31.4% 24% 18% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 18% -13.3%
10% -38.0% 17% -21.6%
15% -44.0% 16% -29.2%
20% -49.5% 15% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$35 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,078
Realized−$2,716
Unrealized−$950
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses152 / 477
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions1
Markets (closed)629 / 630
History coverage85d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 629 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Andrej Kramarić: 4+ goals + assists No 95¢ 50¢ $2,027 $1,078 −$950 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Garry Rodrigues: 3+ goals Jun 27 $1,951 +$100 +5%
Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals Jun 26 $1,949 +$19 +1%
Takefusa Kubo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 26 $1,950 +$19 +1%
Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ goals Jun 25 $1,950 +$19 +1%
Azzedine Ounahi: 3+ goals Jun 25 $1,951 +$19 +1%
Edin Džeko: 4+ goals + assists Jun 24 $1,951 +$19 +1%
Igor Matanović: 3+ goals Jun 24 $1,951 +$19 +1%
Pedro Neto: 3+ goals Jun 23 $1,952 +$19 +1%
Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists Jun 23 $1,952 +$19 +1%
Trezeguet: 3+ goals Jun 22 $1,952 +$19 +1%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $1,953 +$19 +1%
John Yeboah: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $1,953 +$19 +1%
Noa Lang: 3+ goals Jun 20 $1,954 +$19 +1%
Chemsdine Talbi: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $1,954 +$19 +1%
Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals Jun 19 $1,954 +$19 +1%
Patrik Schick: 3+ goals Jun 18 $1,955 +$19 +1%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1,962 +$21 +1%
Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1,960 +$19 +1%
Exact Score: Philippines 1 - 3 Myanmar? Jun 09 $1,179 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Peru 3 - 3 Spain? Jun 09 $1,139 +$11 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $1,089 +$12 +1%
Exact Score: Liechtenstein 3 - 2 Cyprus? Jun 07 $198 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Ethiopia 3 - 3 Malawi? Jun 07 $1,187 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Hong Kong SAR 0 - 3 Mongolia? Jun 06 $1,187 +$13 +1%
Exact Score: Northern Ireland 3 - 3 Guinea? Jun 05 $890 +$10 +1%
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 0 Denmark? Jun 04 $890 +$10 +1%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 2 Madagascar? Jun 03 $1,979 +$21 +1%
Exact Score: Slovakia 1 - 3 Malta? Jun 02 $1,979 +$21 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 01 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 3 Iceland? Jun 01 $1,981 +$19 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Curaçao? May 31 $985 +$15 +2%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Nicaragua? May 30 $985 +$15 +2%
Exact Score: Republic of Ireland 1 - 2 Qatar? May 29 $951 +$49 +5%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5) May 27 $912 +$88 +10%
Gabin Bernardeau: Anytime Goalscorer May 27 $680 +$20 +3%
Exact Score: Palermo FC 1 - 1 US Catanzaro 1929? May 21 $89 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will FC Augsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw? May 19 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Exact Score: AC Monza 1 - 1 SS Juve Stabia? May 19 $87 +$13 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Andrej Kramarić: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 95¢ $2,030 1h
Garry Rodrigues: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $1,951 15h
Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,949 27h
Takefusa Kubo: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,950 39h
Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,950 2d
Azzedine Ounahi: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,951 2d
Edin Džeko: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,951 3d
Igor Matanović: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,951 3d
Pedro Neto: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,952 4d
Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,952 5d
Trezeguet: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,952 5d
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,953 6d
John Yeboah: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,953 6d
Noa Lang: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,954 7d
Chemsdine Talbi: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,954 7d
Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,954 8d
Patrik Schick: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,955 9d
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,962 10d
Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,960 11d
Exact Score: Philippines 1 - 3 Myanmar? BUY No 99¢ $1,179 18d
Exact Score: Peru 3 - 3 Spain? BUY No 99¢ $1,139 18d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Uzbekistan? BUY No 99¢ $1,089 18d
Exact Score: Liechtenstein 3 - 2 Cyprus? BUY No 99¢ $198 20d
Exact Score: Ethiopia 3 - 3 Malawi? BUY No 99¢ $1,187 21d
Exact Score: Hong Kong SAR 0 - 3 Mongolia? BUY No 99¢ $1,187 22d
Exact Score: Northern Ireland 3 - 3 Guinea? BUY No 99¢ $890 23d
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 0 Denmark? BUY No 99¢ $890 24d
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 2 Madagascar? BUY No 99¢ $1,979 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 26d
Exact Score: Slovakia 1 - 3 Malta? BUY No 99¢ $1,979 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,077.67 · official $1,077.67 (match) · 2055 history records