Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb0f…6906 crypto 1154 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$818 (-9%) realized −$792 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%618W / 480L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day66.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days+$60
14 days+$67
30 days−$869
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$1,072
world 10% +$254
other 3% −$1
sports 2% +$34
politics 2% −$3
finance 1% −$7
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -1.8% -11.2% 29% 16% -11.2%
≤30d 1056 -8.0% -16.8% 56% 50% -19.9%
≤90d 1098 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 50% -19.4%
all 1098 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 50% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 50% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 33% -27.1%
15% -29.6% 23% -34.1%
20% -36.5% 16% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$416
Realized−$792
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses618 / 480
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions84
Markets (closed)1098 / 1154
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day66.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 84 History 1098 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 55¢ $22 $28 +$5 (+24%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $22 $24 +$1 (+6%)
SCOTUS rules in favor of Monsanto? No 20¢ 47¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+131%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+12%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 38¢ 61¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+62%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 84¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 89¢ 88¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Betmoar launch a token by March 31, 2027? No 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Betmoar launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 56¢ 82¢ $6 $8 +$3 (+48%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 15¢ 93¢ $1 $7 +$5 (+520%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? No 63¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-48%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+156%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 96¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -90%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $138 +$16 +12%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 19? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -88%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 19? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $6 +$9 +158%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $13 +$10 +74%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 14 $19 −$9 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $10 +$9 +96%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 14 $8 −$5 -60%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -61%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $4 −$1 -29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $5 −$2 -41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? Jun 14 $34 −$1 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $13 −$6 -45%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $130 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $23 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$139 +340%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -90%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $1 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 21h
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 21h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $2 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 6¢ $1 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $42 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 31h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.34 · official $416.65 (match) · 3500 history records