Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DB 0xdb0e…e00a world 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$93 (+11%) realized +$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$121
14 days+$121
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$172
finance 49% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +102.1% +82.8% 100% 100% +82.8%
≤30d 1 +102.1% +82.8% 100% 100% +82.8%
≤90d 9 +20.5% +9.0% 67% 56% +9.5%
all 9 +20.5% +9.0% 67% 56% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 56% +9.5%
10% -1.4% 33% -1.0%
15% -11.0% 33% -10.5%
20% -19.7% 33% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$22 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.61 per $1 lost it wins $3.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage82d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $119 +$121 +102%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $198 +$36 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $112 +$58 +52%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $11 −$3 -30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 17 $43 +$23 +54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $162 −$58 -36%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $28 +$2 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $150 −$6 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $9 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $240 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $119 16h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? SELL No 94¢ $233 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? BUY No 79¢ $198 52d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $170 58d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 60d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 60d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $112 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL No 95¢ $66 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? SELL No 11¢ $10 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? SELL No 65¢ $19 65d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? SELL No 65¢ $75 65d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? BUY No 63¢ $54 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 61¢ $43 67d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY No 93¢ $28 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? BUY No 72¢ $108 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 47¢ $144 72d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 49¢ $150 72d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 83¢ $9 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records