Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb0d…9efe sports 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$603 (+15%) realized +$656 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%23W / 20L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$402
7 days+$415
14 days+$756
30 days+$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% +$274
sports 30% −$47
world 19% +$109
other 13% +$35
weather 5% +$136
finance 1% +$36
crypto 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +5.5% -4.6% 39% 39% +11.4%
≤30d 43 +5.9% -4.2% 53% 51% +5.1%
≤90d 43 +5.9% -4.2% 53% 51% +5.1%
all 43 +5.9% -4.2% 53% 51% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 51% +5.1%
10% -13.3% 47% -5.0%
15% -21.7% 37% -14.2%
20% -29.4% 33% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$55 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized+$656
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions8
Markets (closed)43 / 51
History coverage28d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 55¢ 55¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $100 $87 −$12 (-12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 36¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 53¢ 52¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$92 +92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$371 +371%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$276 +529%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $101 −$100 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $404 +$90 +22%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $467 +$71 +15%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $51 +$42 +83%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $101 +$40 +40%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $51 +$51 +101%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $69 −$18 -26%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $83 +$20 +25%
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $52 +$70 +134%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Qatar vs. El Salvador end in a draw? Jun 06 $72 −$71 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $51 −$41 -80%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$33 +64%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $152 +$124 +81%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$36 +71%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $250 −$127 -51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $41 +$36 +87%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 26 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 21 $91 +$60 +66%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $140 −$140 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $91 +$61 +66%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 18 $20 −$10 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $51 8m
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $30 9m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $101 10m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes $10 1h
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova 100¢ $94 8h
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 53¢ $51 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $51 12h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes $10 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $192 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $471 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $328 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 3d
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan BUY Marco Trungelliti 83¢ $101 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $102 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 93¢ $494 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 92¢ $537 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FULL SENSE 46¢ $15 6d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 54¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.01 · official $446.01 (match) · 91 history records