Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb0c…f84b crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$1 (-5%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$5
other 10% −$1
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -35.2% -41.4% 11% 11% -32.6%
≤30d 9 -35.2% -41.4% 11% 11% -32.6%
≤90d 9 -35.2% -41.4% 11% 11% -32.6%
all 9 -35.2% -41.4% 11% 11% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 11% -32.6%
10% -47.0% 11% -39.0%
15% -52.1% 11% -44.9%
20% -56.8% 11% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 24 history records