Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb0a…e5cc world 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$2
other 19% +$1
politics 2% −$2
sports 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.0% -13.2% 27% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 18 -1.3% -10.7% 39% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 18 -1.3% -10.7% 39% 6% -9.7%
all 28 -1.7% -11.1% 46% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 7% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage492d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $28 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $90 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $41 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -12%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $9 $0 +5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $53 +$2 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $76 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +14%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $44 +$2 +5%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $5 −$3 -49%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 05 $9 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 29 $11 $0 +3%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $3 $0 -0%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 22 $11 $0 +1%
St. John's vs. DePaul Mar 03 $9 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 21m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $22 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $15 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $9 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $45 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $41 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $41 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $4 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $2 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $2 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $5 45h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $34 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $11 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $45 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $42 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $24 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $17 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $12 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records