Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DB 0xdb04…8b26 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$35 (+5%) realized +$46 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$5
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$51
weather 33% +$71
sports 25% +$25
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +18.6% +7.3% 62% 57% -8.0%
≤30d 40 +27.1% +15.0% 48% 45% -0.3%
≤90d 40 +27.1% +15.0% 48% 45% -0.3%
all 40 +27.1% +15.0% 48% 45% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.0% 45% -0.3%
10% +4.0% 42% -9.9%
15% -6.1% 40% -18.6%
20% -15.3% 38% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions17
Markets (closed)40 / 57
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-24%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 100¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+85%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-35%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$15 +75%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 14 $25 +$15 +58%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $21 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$7 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$20 +99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$82 +786%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 +$20 +196%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $15 +$19 +121%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$80 +766%
Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $10 −$9 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 06 $10 +$5 +48%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $15 +$10 +63%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $13 32m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 7h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $27 46h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer SELL Yes 98¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 3d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY Yes 61¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 60¢ $21 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 38¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.46 · official $204.47 (match) · 91 history records