Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DB 0xdb03…4c97 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$222 (-12%) realized −$222 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$37
sports 18% −$59
other 17% +$72
politics 15% −$265
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +24.5% +12.6% 89% 44% -7.8%
≤30d 9 +24.5% +12.6% 89% 44% -7.8%
≤90d 17 +14.6% +3.7% 82% 35% -20.3%
all 17 +14.6% +3.7% 82% 35% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 35% -20.3%
10% -6.3% 35% -27.9%
15% -15.3% 35% -34.9%
20% -23.6% 24% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$114 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage66d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $115 +$11 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $105 +$3 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$57 +114%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 −$77 -76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $115 +$5 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $117 +$3 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +74%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? May 01 $265 −$265 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $260 +$5 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $244 +$17 +7%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $236 +$8 +4%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 17 $1 +$1 +144%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $174 +$7 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $115 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $108 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $105 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 18¢ $24 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 96¢ $115 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $117 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 5d
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $265 51d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $260 59d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? BUY No $1 61d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $244 62d
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $81 63d
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $87 63d
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $58 63d
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 63d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 64d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 11¢ $2 64d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $1 64d
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 64d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $174 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records