Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:08:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdb03…8279 crypto 532 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$313 (-7%) realized −$313 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%337W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$951
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$1,071
other 7% −$20
sports 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 191 -33.9% -40.2% 52% 50% -50.3%
≤90d 530 -18.1% -25.9% 64% 59% -29.7%
all 530 -18.1% -25.9% 64% 59% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 59% -29.7%
10% -33.0% 37% -36.4%
15% -39.4% 21% -42.6%
20% -45.4% 2% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$313
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses337 / 193
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)530 / 532
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $114 $115 +$1 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 28 $50 −$43 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 28 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 28 $22 −$21 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 28 $7 −$6 -95%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 28 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 28 $14 −$13 -87%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 28 $14 −$9 -67%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 28 $40 −$37 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 28 $37 −$24 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 28 $20 −$3 -14%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 28 $7 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 28 $11 −$6 -58%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 28 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 28 $6 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 28 $43 −$27 -62%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 28 $22 −$20 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 28 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 28 $17 −$22 -133%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 28 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 28 $22 −$29 -128%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 28 $8 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 28 $28 −$26 -91%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 28 $16 −$22 -134%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 28 $23 −$23 -102%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 28 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 28 $12 −$11 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 28 $13 −$16 -121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 28 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 28 $18 −$17 -95%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 28 $16 +$49 +306%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 28 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 28 $24 −$6 -26%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -95%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 28 $8 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 28 $18 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $20 −$23 -111%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $35 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 28 $8 −$8 -92%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 28 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 28 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 28 $30 −$32 -106%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 28 $30 −$27 -89%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 28 $15 −$12 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 28 $13 −$12 -95%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 28 $18 −$27 -152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $118 1h
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.43 · official $115.43 (match) · 3500 history records