Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DB 0xdb02…3986 sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$5
sports 19% −$11
crypto 1% $0
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 49 -11.5% -19.9% 22% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -27.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -34.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -41.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage522d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 13? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 14? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 18? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 25? Mar 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 06 $4,029 −$4 -0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on September 30? Oct 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Justin Herbert win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jul 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trae Young win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jul 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring? Jul 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brock Purdy win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jul 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 06 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 06 $5 $0 +1%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $2 $0 -2%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15 May 21 $1 $0 -6%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 29 $2 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $2 $0 -16%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Mar 26 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 20 $9 $0 -4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will 7-8 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Mar 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Mar 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 14 $4 $0 -5%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus Mar 11 $2 $0 -3%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $921 −$1 -0%
Will "No Other Land" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Osc Mar 01 $4 $0 -2%
Silva vs. Almeida Mar 01 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Mar 01 $1 $0 -5%
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025? Feb 28 $4 $0 -6%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 09 $1 $0 -2%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Feb 08 $1 $0 -2%
Stars vs. Kings Feb 08 $1 $0 -2%
Will Saquon Barkley score a TD in Super Bowl LIX? Feb 06 $1 $0 -3%
Will Kawhi Leonard lead the NBA in scoring? Feb 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in scoring? Feb 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? Feb 04 $2 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Jan 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 24 $2 $0 -1%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 23 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24? Jan 22 $3 $0 -2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 17 $3 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 17? Jan 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Justin Jefferson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 46m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 29d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 30d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $4 33d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $4 34d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 25? BUY No 100¢ $4 114d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $4,025 190d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $4,029 190d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on September 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 260d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on September 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 260d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $5 352d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $4 353d
US military action against Iran before July? SELL No 34¢ $2 362d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY No 36¢ $2 362d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election? SELL No 45¢ $2 386d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY No 46¢ $2 386d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 387d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 387d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15 SELL No 35¢ $1 390d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15 BUY No 37¢ $1 390d
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? SELL No 53¢ $2 443d
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? BUY No 54¢ $2 443d
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 443d
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 443d
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes 52¢ $1 446d
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 BUY Yes 55¢ $1 446d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 President’s Trophy? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 452d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 President’s Trophy? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 452d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? SELL No 65¢ $2 455d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY No 69¢ $2 455d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.77 · official $4.77 (match) · 111 history records