Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:32:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb02…73c2 crypto 297 markets active 4d ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$549 (-2%) realized −$549 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%187W / 132L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$109
14 days−$107
30 days−$327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$369
other 26% −$392
politics 1% −$29
weather 0% −$8
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -63.4% -66.9% 22% 19% -33.0%
≤30d 80 -35.0% -41.2% 39% 31% -21.1%
≤90d 200 -25.1% -32.2% 48% 32% -17.1%
all 319 -11.7% -20.1% 59% 38% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 38% -11.6%
10% -27.7% 23% -20.1%
15% -34.7% 15% -27.8%
20% -41.1% 10% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$34 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$549
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses187 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)319 / 297
History coverage132d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 319 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $106 −$28 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 −$11 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $71 −$62 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $64 +$16 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $126 −$24 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $136 +$26 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $59 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 03 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $14 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 03 $23 −$3 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 03 $33 −$9 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 03 $25 −$25 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 03 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $21 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $56 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $57 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $49 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $9 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $70 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $82 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1559 history records