Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb02…0f88 sports 480 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 124d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,929 (-7%) realized −$1,932 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%240W / 259L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$242
7 days−$242
14 days−$631
30 days+$828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$769
other 2% −$462
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -98.3% -98.4% 0% 0% -97.5%
≤30d 51 -35.7% -41.8% 33% 31% +24.9%
≤90d 238 -12.1% -20.5% 42% 41% -19.1%
all 499 -3.6% -12.8% 48% 43% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 43% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 39% -21.8%
15% -28.8% 35% -29.4%
20% -35.8% 27% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$42 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$1,932
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses240 / 259
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions3
Markets (closed)499 / 480
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$61
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. KT Wiz Lotte Giants 50¢ 51¢ $94 $97 +$3 (+3%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 92¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Over $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 211 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs. North Alabama Lions Jun 21 $1 −$11 -737%
North Texas Mean Green vs. Temple Owls Jun 21 $2 −$20 -821%
Bradley Braves vs. Southern Illinois Salukis Jun 21 $0 −$17 -4829%
Rider Broncs vs. Sacred Heart Pioneers Jun 21 $0 −$1 -1167%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona Wildcats Jun 21 $5 −$12 -236%
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State Aztecs Jun 21 $3 −$14 -538%
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Virginia Cavaliers Jun 21 $3 −$42 -1261%
Green Bay Phoenix vs. Milwaukee Panthers Jun 21 $1 −$1 -106%
Wright State Raiders vs. Cleveland State Vikings Jun 21 $0 −$8 -3683%
Charleston Cougars vs. Campbell Fighting Camels Jun 21 $1 −$4 -670%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. UIC Flames Jun 21 $0 −$6 -2914%
Iona Gaels vs. Niagara Purple Eagles Jun 21 $8 −$19 -230%
Oregon State Beavers vs. Seattle Redhawks Jun 21 $1 −$4 -496%
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Robert Morris Colonials Jun 21 $3 −$17 -580%
Tulane Green Wave vs. UAB Blazers Jun 21 $0 −$13 -6647%
Towson Tigers vs. Monmouth Hawks Jun 21 $2 −$4 -202%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Jun 21 $1 −$9 -1033%
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Canisius Golden Griffins Jun 21 $0 −$14 -21376%
Utah Utes vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Jun 21 $5 −$16 -334%
Murray State Racers vs. Illinois State Redbirds Jun 21 $3 −$4 -128%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gators Jun 21 $3 −$2 -64%
Seton Hall Pirates vs. Butler Bulldogs Jun 21 $0 −$5 -1254%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 09 $382 −$376 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 09 $26 −$26 -99%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 07 $6 +$9 +152%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 07 $35 +$24 +70%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 07 $9 −$9 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $51 +$54 +105%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers Jun 06 $98 +$28 +28%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 05 $3 +$3 +93%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $332 +$195 +59%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 05 $26 −$26 -98%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 04 $67 +$4 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $264 −$261 -99%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Doosan Bears Jun 03 $7 −$7 -99%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. SSG Landers Jun 01 $3 −$3 -99%
KBO: LG Twins vs. KT Wiz Jun 01 $47 −$46 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 31 $293 +$262 +89%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung Lions May 30 $12 +$18 +144%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung Lions May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $726 +$974 +134%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants May 27 $19 +$14 +73%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $28 +$31 +109%
Set Handicap: Tabilo (-2.5) vs Majchrzak (+2.5) May 26 $86 +$110 +129%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $4 +$4 +105%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $35 +$15 +42%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $78 +$72 +93%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $24 +$26 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $33 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 BUY Over $2 18h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 BUY Over $2 18h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 49¢ $4 9d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Kia Tigers 62¢ $6 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 47¢ $24 11d
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 52¢ $26 12d
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 43¢ $9 13d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 58¢ $5 13d
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 58¢ $29 13d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants BUY Hanwha Eagles 39¢ $6 14d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers BUY SSG Landers 28¢ $14 14d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers BUY KT Wiz 64¢ $20 14d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers BUY KT Wiz 57¢ $7 14d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers BUY KT Wiz 57¢ $7 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.47 · official $133.47 (match) · 3500 history records