Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb01…c4ff other 136 markets active 5h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$58 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$30
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$29
politics 26% −$18
sports 13% −$4
crypto 11% −$12
world 7% $0
economics 6% −$4
culture 5% $0
finance 2% −$5
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 58 -1.0% -10.4% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 108 -0.7% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 135 -0.6% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 119
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage106d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $49 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $65 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $107 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $132 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $53 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $209 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 15 $383 −$2 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $44 −$3 -6%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $89 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $44 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 12 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $99 −$1 -0%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $49 −$5 -11%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $151 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $94 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $72 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 06 $43 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 04 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $238 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $48 −$3 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $286 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $132 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $59 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $408 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $114 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $59 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $112 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $165 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 23 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $222 −$2 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $41 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $61 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $61 9h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $49 9h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $49 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $64 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $65 22h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 23h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 27h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 27h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 31h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $42 32h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 47h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 47h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $51 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $51 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 90¢ $45 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $46 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 90¢ $41 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $44 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $49 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $49 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.30 · official $40.34 (match) · 548 history records