Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdafd…ec3f world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$4
other 17% −$5
politics 8% $0
finance 7% −$2
crypto 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.4% -9.1% 58% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +0.4% -9.1% 58% 0% -9.1%
all 26 -10.8% -19.3% 46% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 0% -10.3%
10% -27.0% 0% -18.9%
15% -34.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -40.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage403d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $38 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $34 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $42 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $37 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $38 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $37 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 15 $3 $0 -11%
Will Matteo Jorgenson win the Tour de France 2025? Dec 15 $0 $0 -100%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -83%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will MOUZ win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 21 $4 $0 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -91%
Will Eva Copa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Indianapolis Colts? Jun 09 $25 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 16 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $35 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $40 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $13 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $26 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $34 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $34 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $42 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $28 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $9 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $37 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $38 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $4 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $33 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $38 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $37 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $23 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $7 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.72 · official $36.72 (match) · 79 history records