Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:31:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xdafd…b52b sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 637d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$165 (+3%) realized +$188 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$489
7 days+$177
14 days+$190
30 days+$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$79
other 5% +$80
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +10.1% -0.4% 74% 74% -6.5%
≤30d 28 +56.5% +41.6% 75% 75% -6.3%
≤90d 28 +56.5% +41.6% 75% 75% -6.3%
all 34 +28.8% +16.6% 62% 62% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.6% 62% -6.5%
10% +5.4% 62% -15.4%
15% -4.8% 44% -23.6%
20% -14.1% 24% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$125 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

637d coverage
Net worth$548
Realized+$188
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions5
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage637d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $187 $185 −$2 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $139 $125 −$14 (-10%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Under 68¢ 66¢ $96 $93 −$4 (-4%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 48¢ 46¢ $96 $91 −$5 (-5%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $194 +$70 +36%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $182 +$79 +44%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $182 +$79 +44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $181 +$65 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $177 +$88 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $179 +$106 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $179 −$177 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $181 +$50 +27%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $182 +$122 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $183 −$180 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $181 −$180 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $84 +$59 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $84 +$23 +27%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $82 +$60 +73%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $81 +$20 +24%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $166 +$66 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$91 +90%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$31 +31%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $483 +$124 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $484 −$478 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $202 +$69 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $405 +$262 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $253 +$126 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $253 +$201 +79%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1308%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $264 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Jordan BUY 12¢ $1 7h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $190 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $194 8h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $97 8h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $98 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $141 8h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $55 8h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $182 30h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $182 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $181 30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $177 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $179 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $179 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $182 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $181 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $183 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $181 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $84 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $84 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $82 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $81 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $166 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $204 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $607 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $484 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $483 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $548.37 · official $549.39 (match) · 61 history records