Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xdafa…9f46
crypto · 489 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$663 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$468 · open −$158
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$631
Realized−$468
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses230 / 225
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions34
Markets (closed)455 / 489
History coverage199d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 34 History 455 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$150
14 days+$22
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 72¢ 73¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Yes 35¢ 18¢ $115 $59 −$56 (-48%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 66¢ 58¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 45¢ 30¢ $61 $41 −$20 (-33%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 71¢ 66¢ $42 $39 −$3 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+27%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $21 $24 +$3 (+14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 36¢ 24¢ $34 $22 −$12 (-34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 77¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 45¢ 22¢ $39 $19 −$20 (-51%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 29¢ 33¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $39 $15 −$24 (-62%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 69¢ 53¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-16%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 31¢ 14¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-57%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 43¢ 10¢ $13 $3 −$10 (-76%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $11 +$4 +39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $55 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $5 +$2 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1 +$17 +1710%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $133 +$130 +98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $44 −$11 -25%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $48 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $15 +$12 +80%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $803 +$96 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 01 $8 −$6 -69%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? Jun 01 $5 −$4 -74%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $247 −$205 -83%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $54 −$41 -77%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $54 +$15 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $5 +$2 +47%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $28 +$2 +9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $23 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $6 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? May 29 $11 +$3 +27%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 28 $10 +$1 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $26 +$51 +197%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $31 −$3 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 26 $28 +$39 +140%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $212 −$12 -6%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 26 $5 +$3 +67%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 24 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 24 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 24 $6 +$2 +29%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $3 +$8 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 24 $4 +$3 +73%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner May 24 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $2 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $38 +$36 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 24 $6 +$4 +66%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $217 +$25 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $76 −$3 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 23 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 23 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 22 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 22 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 22 $19 +$2 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 58% −$657
world 21% +$297
other 9% +$68
sports 8% −$173
tech 1% −$57
culture 1% −$60
politics 1% −$51
economics 1% +$14
finance 0% −$4
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $31 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $24 2h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $5 20h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $5 20h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $30 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 27h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 34¢ $5 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 82¢ $13 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 31¢ $2 41h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 21¢ $2 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $40 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $10 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +152.6% +128.6% 83% 50% +32.1%
≤30d 127 +25.0% +13.1% 53% 46% -11.5%
≤90d 405 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 44% -17.5%
all 455 +3.0% -6.9% 51% 44% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 44% -17.0%
10% -15.8% 35% -24.9%
15% -23.9% 25% -32.2%
20% -31.4% 16% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $631.27 · official $631.27 (match) · 2415 history records