Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xdaf9…fc07 sports 215 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,490 (+6%) realized +$1,568 · open −$78
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%103W / 109L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$383est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$218
7 days+$901
14 days+$1,674
30 days+$848
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$942
other 3% +$67
world 1% −$215
crypto 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +12.7% +2.0% 50% 46% -1.0%
≤30d 212 +8.4% -1.9% 49% 45% -5.9%
≤90d 212 +8.4% -1.9% 49% 45% -5.9%
all 212 +8.4% -1.9% 49% 45% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 45% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 44% -14.9%
15% -19.9% 42% -23.1%
20% -27.7% 38% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$88 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized+$1,568
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses103 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$383
Open positions3
Markets (closed)212 / 215
History coverage22d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Diane Parry 60¢ 81¢ $208 $285 +$77 (+37%)
Set 1 Winner: Vekic vs Eala Vekic 54¢ 54¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $156 $2 −$154 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 16 $108 −$2 -2%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $372 −$261 -70%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $165 −$163 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $71 −$70 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $67 +$22 +33%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $219 −$215 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$40 +65%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $100 +$170 +170%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$199 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $146 +$156 +106%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$42 +42%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $120 +$80 +66%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $114 +$79 +69%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $104 −$102 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $203 −$82 -40%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Vekic vs Raducanu Jun 14 $191 +$161 +84%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $66 +$103 +155%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $314 +$138 +44%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $84 −$83 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Fritz Jun 14 $119 +$59 +49%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $54 −$53 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $77 +$22 +29%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $80 +$18 +23%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $441 +$57 +13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$50 -49%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $133 +$242 +182%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $73 −$69 -96%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $106 −$104 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $119 +$67 +56%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $363 −$359 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Boulter vs Vekic Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $31 +$55 +179%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $202 +$92 +46%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $51 +$110 +216%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $254 −$250 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs Fritz Jun 13 $86 −$85 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 67¢ $101 42m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Donna Vekic 54¢ $107 43m
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $128 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $26 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 56¢ $57 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 60¢ $61 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 63¢ $101 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Jakub Mensik 54¢ $107 2h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 63¢ $64 2h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 61¢ $101 2h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 60¢ $61 2h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 53¢ $101 2h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Elias Ymer 20¢ $20 2h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 93¢ $93 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 89¢ $89 10h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $67 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 13h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 54¢ $109 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 18h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 52¢ $100 19h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 51¢ $101 19h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 50¢ $49 19h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 69¢ $70 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.85 · official $313.88 (match) · 619 history records