Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:35:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xdaef…ec38
other · 15 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$66 -83%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$64 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 2 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$64
14 days−$64
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $7 −$6 -88%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -70%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $23 −$22 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 82% −$52
tech 13% −$10
politics 4% −$3
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 34m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 6h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 6h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-50.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -45.1% -50.3% 38% 8% -86.4%
≤30d 13 -45.1% -50.3% 38% 8% -86.4%
≤90d 13 -45.1% -50.3% 38% 8% -86.4%
all 13 -45.1% -50.3% 38% 8% -86.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.3% 8% -86.4%
10% ← realistic here -55.1% 8% -87.7%
15% -59.4% 8% -88.9%
20% -63.4% 0% -90.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.93 (match) · 34 history records