Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdaef…fe3b other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$613 (-51%) realized −$589 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$555
sports 14% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-85.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.5% -13.6% 0% 0% -13.6%
≤30d 6 -84.1% -85.6% 0% 0% -90.9%
≤90d 6 -84.1% -85.6% 0% 0% -90.9%
all 6 -84.1% -85.6% 0% 0% -90.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -85.6% 0% -90.9%
10% -87.0% 0% -91.8%
15% -88.2% 0% -92.6%
20% -89.4% 0% -93.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -84% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$103 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$589
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)6 / 19
History coverage11d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $75 $70 −$5 (-7%)
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Ghana 73¢ 72¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 2 Ghana? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-9%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 28¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 2 Ghana? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 3 Ghana? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-49%)
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $72 −$3 -4%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $513 −$500 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 3¢ $37 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 28¢ $31 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Ghana 73¢ $40 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $67 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 7¢ $77 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 54¢ $69 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 15¢ $73 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $72 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $87 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $513 9d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 10d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.91 · official $394.91 (match) · 23 history records