Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:24:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DA 0xdaec…cf45 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 356d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,647 (-16%) realized −$1,692 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$385
14 days−$293
30 days−$738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$1,089
crypto 22% −$422
politics 19% +$39
world 7% −$97
economics 5% −$82
tech 4% −$83
sports 2% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -35.1% -41.3% 26% 16% -35.3%
≤30d 33 -14.3% -22.5% 52% 30% -26.2%
≤90d 34 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 29% -26.9%
all 48 -17.0% -24.9% 44% 23% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 23% -25.1%
10% -32.1% 17% -32.3%
15% -38.6% 10% -38.8%
20% -44.7% 6% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$79 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized−$1,692
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage356d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $200 $237 +$37 (+18%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 54¢ $77 $86 +$9 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $73 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$45 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $54 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET Jun 24 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET Jun 24 $144 −$11 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $78 −$43 -55%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $137 −$11 -8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $51 −$9 -17%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $146 −$121 -83%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $21 −$3 -14%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $37 +$24 +65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $132 −$132 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 +$26 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$14 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $235 +$7 +3%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $74 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $251 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $301 +$2 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $127 +$46 +37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 −$135 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $58 +$60 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$15 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $29 +$18 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $400 +$29 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $718 −$445 -62%
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 02 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? Mar 04 $555 −$389 -70%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Mar 02 $348 −$22 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Mar 01 $413 −$65 -16%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 05 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 05 $500 −$82 -16%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 13 $1 $0 +17%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? Nov 13 $459 −$83 -18%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 12 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 11 $741 +$18 +2%
Up Only podcast released by November 30? Nov 07 $110 −$18 -16%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $690 +$22 +3%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $438 −$90 -21%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $990 +$31 +3%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 09 $301 −$301 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $78 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $83 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $91 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? SELL Down 100¢ $56 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 96¢ $54 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $49 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $49 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $63 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $35 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $78 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $42 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $98 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $137 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.32 · official $322.32 (match) · 136 history records