Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xdaec…eaaf sports 833 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,253 (-5%) realized −$1,248 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%392W / 434L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$653
7 days−$474
14 days−$322
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$1,012
sports 44% −$429
other 3% +$3
world 0% −$28
politics 0% +$34
finance 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -38.8% -44.6% 30% 30% -40.0%
≤30d 63 -18.7% -26.4% 40% 40% -26.4%
≤90d 183 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 47% -16.8%
all 826 -1.4% -10.8% 47% 44% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 44% -14.3%
10% -19.4% 42% -22.5%
15% -27.1% 38% -30.0%
20% -34.3% 34% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$22 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$1,248
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses392 / 434
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions7
Markets (closed)826 / 833
History coverage140d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 826 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners Over 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 34¢ 34¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 55¢ 52¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 30¢ 28¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$15 +97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $62 +$42 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $54 −$53 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $25 +$15 +58%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 −$19 -75%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-6.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-12.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
United States to win the second half? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots Jun 16 $30 +$20 +65%
Fabián Ruiz: 2+ shots Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Fabián Ruiz: 3+ shots Jun 15 $15 +$13 +90%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$27 -54%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +77%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $131 +$72 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $116 −$76 -65%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $22 +$21 +93%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $15 +$30 +197%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 +$17 +67%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $73 +$68 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $38 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $25 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $26 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $51 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $47 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $62 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 41¢ $25 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $54 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $40 19h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 13¢ $6 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $25 22h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 25h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 25h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $15 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $43 42h
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots BUY Yes 60¢ $30 42h
Fabián Ruiz: 2+ shots SELL Yes 100¢ $28 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $24 43h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 46h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 46h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.66 · official $237.67 (match) · 2164 history records