Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdaeb…0d2f weather 679 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (313 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$289 (+10%) realized +$269 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%134W / 641L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day312.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$866
7 days−$667
14 days−$518
30 days−$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$502
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (313 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 562 -35.8% -41.9% 17% 17% -28.8%
≤30d 775 -16.6% -24.6% 17% 17% -23.6%
≤90d 775 -16.6% -24.6% 17% 17% -23.6%
all 775 -16.6% -24.6% 17% 17% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover312.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.6% 17% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 17% -30.9%
15% -38.4% 17% -37.5%
20% -44.4% 17% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized+$269
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses134 / 641
Open positions94
Markets (closed)775 / 679
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day312.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 94 History 775 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $13 $36 +$23 (+176%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $11 $31 +$21 (+193%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $8 $26 +$19 (+244%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 46¢ 62¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $6 $20 +$14 (+221%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $4 $18 +$14 (+338%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Yes 43¢ 43¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Yes 21¢ 86¢ $2 $9 +$6 (+307%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Yes 24¢ 80¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+229%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 31¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Yes 43¢ 36¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Yes 53¢ 66¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+63%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 405 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 29? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 23? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 25? Jun 17 $0 $0 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on May 27? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 31? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 30? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -173%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 2? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 27? Jun 17 $0 $0 -386%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 22? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 26? Jun 17 $10 −$11 -108%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 26? Jun 17 $0 $0 +244%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 30? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 28? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -129%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -2331%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 24? Jun 17 $0 +$8 +32550%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 19? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 19? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 25? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 26? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -110%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 18? Jun 17 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 31? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 21? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 27? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 3? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -125%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 26? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 24? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 21? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 23? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 31? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 5? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 1? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -161%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on May 20? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 20m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.26 · official $371.19 (match) · 3500 history records