Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdae8…5d5b world 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 44L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$7
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$25
other 30% $0
finance 2% +$2
politics 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 27 -0.3% -9.8% 41% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 32 +57.8% +42.7% 38% 3% -9.8%
all 69 +25.8% +13.8% 36% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.8% 1% -9.8%
10% +2.9% 1% -18.5%
15% -7.0% 1% -26.3%
20% -16.1% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage487d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $172 $173 +$1 (+1%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $203 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $146 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $71 +$2 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $187 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $354 +$1 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $169 +$2 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $336 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $167 +$4 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $183 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $649 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $553 +$3 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $193 +$4 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $164 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $47 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $375 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $148 −$11 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $118 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $172 +$6 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $32 −$2 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $146 +$12 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $159 +$2 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $1,166 −$1 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $908 −$1 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $35 +$9 +26%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $1,983 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $97 −$43 -44%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 20 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $7 $0 -5%
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Friday? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 19 $2 $0 -13%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday? May 18 $9 −$2 -26%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 17 $7 $0 -1%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Spain finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 11? May 12 $9 $0 +3%
Will Jamie Dimon be named in Epstein files? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $66 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $105 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $73 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $73 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $146 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $52 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $71 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $16 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $171 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $187 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $26 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $32 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $170 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $170 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $170 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $170 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $99 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $72 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $169 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $168 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $168 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $149 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $168 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.97 · official $172.85 (match) · 285 history records