Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:05:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xdae5…fd08 crypto 832 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate69%569W / 260L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days+$89
14 days+$143
30 days+$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$84
sports 8% −$138
other 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +3.7% -6.2% 54% 48% +0.7%
≤30d 54 +6.4% -3.7% 57% 50% +4.7%
≤90d 829 -2.9% -12.2% 69% 30% -10.9%
all 829 -2.9% -12.2% 69% 30% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 30% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 13% -19.4%
15% -28.3% 7% -27.2%
20% -35.3% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses569 / 260
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)829 / 832
History coverage69d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 829 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$42 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$45 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$33 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$29 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$16 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$16 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $47 +$15 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $31 +$9 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.88 · official $14.88 (match) · 2465 history records