Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdae3…0863 other 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1871 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$93 (-0%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%5W / 40L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$901per market
Trades / day1871.5pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$33
politics 32% −$7
world 20% +$31
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% +$24
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1871 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +1.6% -8.1% 11% 4% -9.3%
≤30d 45 +1.6% -8.1% 11% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 45 +1.6% -8.1% 11% 4% -9.3%
all 45 +1.6% -8.1% 11% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1871.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 4% -9.3%
10% -16.9% 4% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -24.9% 4% -25.9%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$545) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
38.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$0 · ×61.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.83 per $1 lost it wins $8.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses5 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$901
Trades / day1871.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $522 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $745 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $1,742 +$31 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,191 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 16 $545 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 16 $384 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $455 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $12,890 −$7 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $673 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $908 $0 -0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $746 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,058 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 15 $68 +$24 +36%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $88 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $820 $0 -0%
Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $77 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $432 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $254 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $409 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $232 $0 +0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $107 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $150 −$1 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $499 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,410 +$24 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $1,346 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $35 +$13 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $25 3m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 10m
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 10m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 23m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 23m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $26 28m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $26 28m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $25 28m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $25 33m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $25 35m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $25 35m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $25 37m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $25 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 39m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 39m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 39m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 39m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 40m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 40m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 41m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 41m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 41m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 41m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 43m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 43m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 43m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 43m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.25 · official $156.25 (match) · 3500 history records