Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xdae3…33a3 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 279d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$174 (+9%) realized +$194 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days+$106
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$170
sports 3% −$36
economics 3% −$50
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -42.5% -48.0% 33% 33% -53.9%
≤30d 8 +2.1% -7.6% 38% 38% +81.3%
≤90d 8 +2.1% -7.6% 38% 38% +81.3%
all 11 -5.4% -14.4% 36% 36% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 36% +5.7%
10% -22.6% 36% -4.4%
15% -30.1% 27% -13.7%
20% -36.9% 27% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +100% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$18 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$194
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage279d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 +$3 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2 Jun 13 $41 +$152 +372%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 14 $811 −$22 -3%
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 14 $698 +$65 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 56m
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $44 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 82¢ $9 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $18 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 58¢ $10 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 43¢ $13 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? A BUY $21 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2 BUY 21¢ $41 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 8d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 8d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No $50 276d
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 278d
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY Yes 12¢ $56 278d
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY Yes 31¢ $156 278d
Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY No 39¢ $100 278d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.21 · official $82.21 (match) · 54 history records