Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DA 0xdae0…836a sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,782 (-17%) realized −$4,635 · open −$147
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$960per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,707
7 days+$4,707
14 days+$5,210
30 days+$5,596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$5,400
other 1% −$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +25.8% +13.8% 67% 67% +48.1%
≤30d 9 +37.3% +24.2% 67% 67% +49.3%
≤90d 14 +16.1% +5.0% 57% 57% +39.7%
all 29 -9.1% -17.7% 45% 45% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 45% -26.6%
10% -25.6% 45% -33.6%
15% -32.8% 45% -40.1%
20% -39.4% 45% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$1,363) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -28% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$861 vs −$1,038 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,635
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage116d
Avg bet$960
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 37¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $406 +$371 +91%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $914 −$900 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6,085 +$5,236 +86%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $101 +$91 +90%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $102 +$167 +164%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $406 +$445 +110%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $103 −$100 -97%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $406 +$386 +95%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $1,014 +$909 +90%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5 May 01 $152 −$150 -99%
Bristol City FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $100 +$100 +100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5 Apr 16 $310 −$305 -98%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $400 −$394 -98%
US Cremonese vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 Mar 16 $1,000 −$996 -100%
Birmingham City FC vs. Sheffield United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $700 +$729 +104%
Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $1,363 +$1,600 +117%
Gil Vicente FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5 Mar 02 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5 Mar 01 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Como 1907 vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $139 +$139 +100%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 Mar 01 $193 +$209 +108%
Ipswich Town FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5 Feb 28 $1,755 −$1,755 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5 Feb 24 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 Feb 23 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Feb 23 $1,000 +$818 +82%
SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5 Feb 22 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5 Feb 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5 Feb 20 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $150 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,014 16h
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $102 12d
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 12d
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $103 12d
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 12d
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 12d
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 12d
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 12d
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 13d
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 14d
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 80 history records