Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xdae0…f46e sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$350 (+24%) realized +$349 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$411
other 30% +$38
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +17.1% +6.0% 70% 70% +34.0%
≤30d 10 +17.1% +6.0% 70% 70% +34.0%
≤90d 10 +17.1% +6.0% 70% 70% +34.0%
all 10 +17.1% +6.0% 70% 70% +34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 70% +34.0%
10% -4.2% 70% +21.2%
15% -13.4% 70% +9.5%
20% -21.9% 30% -1.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$11 · ×6.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.36 per $1 lost it wins $14.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$411
Realized+$349
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 64¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 63¢ 60¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Hal Jun 20 $49 +$48 +97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will United States win on 2 Jun 20 $46 +$59 +130%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $49 +$30 +61%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $208 +$95 +46%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $207 +$96 +46%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $203 +$88 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $137 +$66 +48%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $40 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $40 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $26 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Japan win on 20 BUY 8¢ $21 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $18 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $30 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Hal BUY 50¢ $49 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will United States win on 2 BUY 43¢ $46 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $208 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams t BUY 34¢ $53 47h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $207 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $203 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 22¢ $4 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $137 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.95 · official $455.95 · 29 history records