Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdadd…7f34 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$120 (-14%) realized −$122 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$98
sports 43% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -31.2% -37.8% 38% 38% -23.9%
≤30d 29 -31.2% -37.8% 38% 38% -23.9%
≤90d 29 -31.2% -37.8% 38% 38% -23.9%
all 29 -31.2% -37.8% 38% 38% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 38% -23.9%
10% -43.7% 38% -31.2%
15% -49.1% 34% -37.9%
20% -54.1% 31% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 34
History coverage3d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 19 $10 +$9 +91%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$20 +50%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$5 +23%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $40 −$34 -85%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$14 +67%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$30 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$21 +83%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$28 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$41 +46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$28 +93%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 4h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 9h
Canada vs. Qatar: Total Corners Odd or Even? SELL Even 99¢ $19 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 51¢ $10 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $41 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $20 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under $5 29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 10¢ $5 30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 24¢ $5 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $34 33h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes $5 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes $5 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes $5 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $20 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.60 · official $81.60 (match) · 56 history records