Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdadb…896c crypto 299 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+5%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate43%128W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$31
14 days−$37
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -18.6% -26.4% 67% 32% -33.1%
≤30d 292 -6.7% -15.6% 42% 22% -9.6%
≤90d 299 -5.9% -14.9% 43% 23% -8.9%
all 299 -5.9% -14.9% 43% 23% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 23% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 13% -17.6%
15% -30.5% 9% -25.6%
20% -37.3% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses128 / 171
Open positions0
Markets (closed)299 / 299
History coverage30d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 299 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 852 history records