Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xdadb…9182 crypto 215 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$244 (+3%) realized +$244 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate66%141W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days+$8
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$5
sports 4% +$42
weather 0% +$7
tech 0% −$22
world 0% −$10
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 +1.5% -8.1% 65% 50% -9.4%
≤30d 211 +1.8% -7.9% 65% 51% -9.4%
≤90d 215 +4.6% -5.4% 66% 52% -9.3%
all 215 +4.6% -5.4% 66% 52% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 52% -9.3%
10% -14.4% 37% -18.0%
15% -22.7% 27% -25.9%
20% -30.3% 20% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses141 / 74
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)215 / 215
History coverage43d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 215 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $153 −$52 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$8 -8%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$16 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$21 +41%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $128 −$91 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $147 −$88 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $77 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $77 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$39 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $279 −$114 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $82 −$59 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$17 +56%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$13 +132%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$22 +216%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $126 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $178 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $77 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$18 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$19 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $27 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 896 history records