Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdad7…723a crypto 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$811 (+10%) realized +$855 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%87W / 68L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day84.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$889
sports 2% −$57
other 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 55% +0.5%
≤30d 155 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 55% +0.5%
≤90d 155 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 55% +0.5%
all 155 -6.6% -15.5% 56% 55% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 55% +0.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 52% -9.2%
15% -31.0% 43% -17.9%
20% -37.8% 27% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$32 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$855
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses87 / 68
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)155 / 157
History coverage4d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day84.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 57¢ 32¢ $100 $57 −$43 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$43 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $77 +$29 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$38 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$45 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $205 +$114 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $153 −$100 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$30 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $67 +$88 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$77 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $56 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $348 +$50 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $204 +$62 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $227 +$89 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $238 −$231 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $77 +$48 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $77 +$32 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $204 +$85 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $129 +$101 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $78 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $165 −$160 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$21 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$32 +121%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $101 −$46 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$7 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $94 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $106 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $89 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $319 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $83 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $82 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $154 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $67 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.47 · official $179.15 · 418 history records