Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:03:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdad6…1df3 other 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$45
sports 25% −$16
politics 8% −$10
economics 7% −$4
culture 5% −$6
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage133d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $310 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $165 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $143 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $312 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $644 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $413 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $138 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $259 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $371 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $439 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $794 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $682 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $237 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $525 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $431 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $317 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $429 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $314 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $150 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $160 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $339 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $64 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $64 3h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 4h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 6h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 7h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 8h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 13h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $64 15h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 16h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 18h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 22h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 24h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $65 25h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $65 27h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $65 32h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $65 34h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 35h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 37h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $65 41h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $65 43h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $65 47h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 3d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 3d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1353 history records