Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xdad6…63a0 sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,007 (+2%) realized +$1,053 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%40W / 34L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$555per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$677est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$100
30 days−$653
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$761
other 8% −$411
politics 3% +$146
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -55.1% -59.4% 0% 0% -26.9%
≤90d 47 -6.5% -15.4% 47% 34% -8.1%
all 74 +2.8% -7.0% 54% 39% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 39% -5.8%
10% -15.9% 38% -14.8%
15% -24.0% 35% -23.0%
20% -31.5% 34% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$511) neutral
Persistence
early +18% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$270 vs −$310 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$2,454
Realized+$1,053
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses40 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$677
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage101d
Avg bet$555
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Gabriela Ruse 36¢ 36¢ $2,000 $1,972 −$28 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 95¢ 92¢ $500 $482 −$18 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo Jun 01 $240 −$240 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi May 26 $1,534 −$140 -9%
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry May 26 $1,530 −$173 -11%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova May 23 $409 −$400 -98%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $409 +$1,130 +276%
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 22 $1,001 +$12 +1%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $1,000 +$20 +2%
Geneva Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Casper Ruud May 19 $3,362 −$1,869 -56%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Madison Keys vs Cristina Bucsa May 18 $1,241 +$973 +78%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $240 −$234 -98%
Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon May 17 $205 −$200 -97%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Daniel Galan vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 17 $406 +$367 +91%
Paris: Madison Keys vs Sarah Rakotomanga May 13 $120 −$117 -97%
Valencia vs. Saski Baskonia May 10 $921 +$20 +2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Arthur Fils May 10 $1,083 −$396 -36%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik May 09 $2,012 −$211 -10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristina Bucsa vs Qinwen Zheng May 07 $511 −$99 -19%
Wuxi: Akira Santillan vs Coleman Wong May 05 $577 +$127 +22%
Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Jie Cui May 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Savannah: Andres Martin vs Clement Tabur Apr 22 $600 −$600 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Zsombor Piros Apr 22 $400 −$400 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Jaime Faria vs Lloyd Harris Apr 22 $53 +$36 +67%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Veronika Podrez vs Sorana Cirstea Apr 19 $3,446 +$2,708 +79%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Fiona Ferro vs Sorana Cirstea Apr 18 $410 −$410 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Jelena Ostapenko vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 18 $435 −$435 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $117 +$94 +80%
BMW Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Vitaliy Sachko Apr 13 $100 +$65 +65%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $469 −$469 -100%
Barcelona Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Terence Atmane Apr 12 $300 +$142 +47%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Lilli Tagger vs Liudmila Samsonova Apr 12 $292 −$292 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alejandro Tabilo Apr 09 $290 +$249 +86%
Aguilar vs. Schwaerzler: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Apr 07 $100 +$8 +8%
Aguilar vs. Schwaerzler: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Apr 07 $100 +$9 +9%
Madrid: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Joel Schwaerzler Apr 07 $1,100 +$54 +5%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Terence Atmane vs Frances Tiafoe Apr 06 $600 +$165 +28%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Com Apr 05 $173 +$144 +83%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $350 −$350 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Rei Sakamoto Mar 31 $100 +$60 +60%
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Hynek Barton Mar 29 $461 +$334 +72%
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Dusan Lajovic vs Hugo Grenier Mar 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Oviedo be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Alicante: Pedro Martinez vs Pablo Carreno Busta Mar 28 $350 −$350 -100%
Split: Matej Dodig vs Mili Poljicak Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Mar 27 $250 +$205 +82%
Alicante: Lloyd Harris vs Marco Cecchinato Mar 26 $400 −$400 -100%
Morelia: Luka Pavlovic vs Adam Walton Mar 25 $200 +$879 +440%
Alicante: Pedro Martinez vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Victoria Mboko Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Alicante: Elmer Moeller vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Mar 23 $4,000 −$85 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Gabriela Ruse 36¢ $2,038 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi BUY Johannus Monday 26¢ $102 9d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $28 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $5 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $1 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $1 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $0 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $4 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $2 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $2 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $60 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $6 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $1 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $2 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $6 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $37 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $0 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $0 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $0 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $0 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $1 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $78 21d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reyes/Tabilo BUY Reyes/Tabilo 24¢ $3 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi SELL Sebastian Ofner 23¢ $1,394 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi BUY Sebastian Ofner 24¢ $1,534 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry SELL Diane Parry 30¢ $1,357 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 32¢ $1,530 30d
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 27¢ $409 30d
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,013 31d
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 71¢ $1,020 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,453.80 · official $2,453.80 (match) · 249 history records