Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdad0…a4e9 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 23% +$8
sports 22% +$6
politics 21% +$1
other 20% +$1
culture 8% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 11 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 9% -7.5%
≤90d 11 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 9% -7.5%
all 46 -1.9% -11.3% 50% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -8.6%
10% -19.7% 0% -17.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -25.3%
20% -34.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.8 per $1 lost it wins $4.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage468d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $43 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $40 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $110 +$2 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $2 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $47 +$7 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $34 −$1 -2%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 20 $9 −$2 -24%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 17 $199 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5 Mar 16 $210 +$8 +4%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 15 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 14 $136 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 16 $18 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will FDP be part of the next German government? Apr 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11? Apr 12 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 04 $18 $0 -1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 29 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $17 $0 -0%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order this week? Mar 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? Mar 16 $17 $0 +1%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $16 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $43 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $43 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $12 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $8 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $24 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $43 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $8 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $7 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $1 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $38 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $40 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $40 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $22 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $17 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $36 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $4 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $4 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $35 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $21 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $21 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $38 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $38 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records