Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xdace…0a81 sports 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 634d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+0%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate26%22W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$13
other 14% −$4
politics 12% −$7
sports 3% +$89
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +26.7% +14.7% 40% 20% -5.1%
≤30d 17 +13.1% +2.3% 29% 12% -5.7%
≤90d 67 +2.4% -7.3% 24% 16% -9.3%
all 85 +5.0% -5.0% 26% 16% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 16% -9.2%
10% -14.1% 16% -17.9%
15% -22.4% 15% -25.9%
20% -30.0% 15% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$3 · ×3.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

634d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses22 / 63
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage634d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $151 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $11 +$15 +134%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $25 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $13 +$12 +90%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $133 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 18 $8 +$8 +93%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $131 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 03 $128 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $260 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $123 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $130 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $126 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $124 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $124 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 24 $122 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $123 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $128 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $126 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 23 $123 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $260 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $135 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $122 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $131 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $128 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $130 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $124 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $125 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 2h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 26h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 27h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $97 30h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 2d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $11 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $89 5d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $18 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $18 15d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 15d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 25d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 25d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $36 25d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 25d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $58 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 29d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 29d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $25 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.72 · official $96.72 (match) · 349 history records