Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:21:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DA 0xdac9…39f1 crypto 942 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$774 (-13%) realized −$777 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate34%468W / 900L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$838
7 days−$802
14 days−$802
30 days−$886
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$36
sports 0% −$2
other 0% −$3
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 541 -79.9% -81.8% 9% 8% -66.0%
≤30d 723 -60.7% -64.5% 20% 15% -37.4%
≤90d 1368 -32.8% -39.2% 34% 25% -21.6%
all 1368 -32.8% -39.2% 34% 25% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.2% 25% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -45.0% 14% -29.1%
15% -50.4% 8% -36.0%
20% -55.2% 6% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$777
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses468 / 900
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1368 / 942
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 24¢ 88¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+267%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 27¢ 42¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Nigeria 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Sinners (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Playof Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2025-11-13? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Hailey Baptiste Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hornets vs. Pacers Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-20? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Kickoff Play Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs K27 (BO3) - Exort Cataclysm Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stag Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Pelicans vs. Hornets Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Pacers Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.98 · official $6.27 (match) · 3500 history records