Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xdac6…eea9 crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$158 (+34%) realized +$158 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$50
14 days+$126
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$50
other 33% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -14.3% -22.5% 37% 32% +5.1%
≤30d 42 +47.2% +33.1% 45% 40% +15.6%
≤90d 42 +47.2% +33.1% 45% 40% +15.6%
all 42 +47.2% +33.1% 45% 40% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.1% 40% +15.6%
10% +20.4% 40% +4.5%
15% +8.8% 40% -5.6%
20% -1.9% 38% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +100% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage13d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $51 +$18 +36%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $51 −$19 -38%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $103 −$19 -19%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $51 +$78 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$5 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$27 +261%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$3 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$7 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$7 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$15 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +163%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$57 +1765%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $69 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $32 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $84 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $129 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $9 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $8 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $10 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records