Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xdac5…ae24 other 432 markets active 6d ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,574 (+8%) realized +$13,574 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate62%268W / 164L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$374per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$146
30 days+$3,878
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$11,109
finance 31% +$1,002
world 4% −$134
sports 2% +$323
tech 2% −$342
crypto 1% −$564
politics 0% −$64
economics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +8.7% -1.6% 59% 47% -9.3%
≤30d 90 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 48% -3.4%
≤90d 372 +9.8% -0.6% 62% 35% -1.9%
all 432 +8.0% -2.3% 62% 36% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 36% -3.2%
10% -11.6% 23% -12.4%
15% -20.1% 14% -20.9%
20% -28.0% 8% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$72 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13,574
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses268 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)432 / 432
History coverage129d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 432 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 9? Jun 10 $65 −$65 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 9? Jun 10 $670 −$670 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $58 −$19 -32%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $9 +$4 +48%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 10 $373 +$98 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $207 +$29 +14%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 10 $553 +$266 +48%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $686 −$76 -11%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $112 +$6 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 10 $260 −$42 -16%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 10 $1,689 +$77 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $179 +$121 +68%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 9? Jun 09 $160 +$82 +51%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? Jun 09 $181 +$285 +157%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $308 −$154 -50%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $285 +$159 +56%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $453 −$89 -20%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $120 −$4 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 09 $108 −$4 -3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 09 $856 −$33 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,061 +$639 +60%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $887 +$228 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? Jun 08 $231 +$31 +14%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1,101 −$66 -6%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1,182 −$228 -19%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 08 $1,545 −$1,545 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $982 +$201 +20%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $30 +$20 +64%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1,136 +$183 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 5? Jun 05 $308 +$197 +64%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June? Jun 05 $913 +$164 +18%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $498 +$152 +31%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 05 $961 +$182 +19%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $308 +$87 +28%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 05 $2,838 +$331 +12%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in June? Jun 05 $636 +$78 +12%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2,095 +$307 +15%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $194 −$47 -24%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,409 −$6 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $120 −$35 -29%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May? Jun 03 $320 −$16 -5%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $35 −$35 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 03 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 03 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $1,034 −$364 -35%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May? Jun 03 $1,239 −$8 -1%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1,038 −$339 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $39 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 93¢ $14 5d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? SELL No 93¢ $205 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? SELL No 81¢ $236 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? SELL No 91¢ $384 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? SELL No 39¢ $228 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? BUY No 49¢ $303 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? SELL Yes 54¢ $106 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? SELL Yes 56¢ $275 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? BUY No 70¢ $207 6d
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 26¢ $54 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? BUY Yes 54¢ $383 6d
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Up 18¢ $65 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? SELL No 41¢ $29 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? SELL No 42¢ $41 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? SELL No 46¢ $148 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? BUY No 51¢ $260 6d
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 19¢ $112 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? SELL No 90¢ $435 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL No 81¢ $198 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? SELL No 92¢ $9 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? SELL No 92¢ $458 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $154 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? SELL No 88¢ $444 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 9? BUY No 65¢ $7 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 9? BUY No 65¢ $663 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 9? BUY No 63¢ $65 6d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 37¢ $79 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? BUY No 35¢ $17 6d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? BUY No 35¢ $164 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2342 history records