Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdac2…b78c other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$1
other 19% −$5
politics 11% −$1
culture 3% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.5% -8.2% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 39 -1.1% -10.5% 26% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage261d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $28 $28 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $77 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $167 +$5 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $67 −$5 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $72 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $39 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $65 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $19 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Jan 31 $28 −$5 -17%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 18 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $28 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $34 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 7h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $9 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $34 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $22 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $2 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $24 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 25h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $20 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $52 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $34 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $34 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $35 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $11 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $21 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $3 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $14 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.27 · official $28.27 (match) · 229 history records