Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xdac1…fe05 other 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% $0
other 29% $0
politics 7% −$1
tech 6% $0
economics 5% +$1
sports 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -3.1% -12.3% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -3.1% -12.3% 18% 0% -9.6%
all 43 -0.9% -10.4% 44% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage469d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $85 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $77 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 08 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jun 05 $10 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $6.00 and $6.25 in April? May 10 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 07 $8 $0 -1%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 22 $1 $0 -31%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 28 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $12 $0 +3%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $12 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 19m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $12 19m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $43 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $2 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $28 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $10 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $30 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $8 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $41 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $41 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $38 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $6 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $30 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $0 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records