Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DA 0xdac1…5d2d crypto 270 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$790 (-2%) realized −$790 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%256W / 12L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$160
other 42% −$634
weather 0% −$8
world 0% +$11
tech 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 47 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 268 -3.1% -12.3% 96% 3% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 3% -10.9%
10% -20.7% 1% -19.5%
15% -28.4% 1% -27.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$77 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$790
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses256 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)268 / 270
History coverage235d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? Jun 10 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 1? Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? May 27 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $299 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? May 15 $290 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $8 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $290 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $290 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $290 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 07 $290 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 06 $290 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 29 $290 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 22? Apr 27 $290 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $290 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 20 $290 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 16? Apr 17 $290 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 16 $290 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 10? Apr 13 $290 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $290 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 8? Apr 09 $290 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $290 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $290 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 2? Apr 06 $290 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 02 $275 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 31 $100 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 27? Mar 31 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 26? Mar 27 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 22? Mar 24 $280 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 22 $280 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $285 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pla Mar 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 13? Mar 15 $285 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $300 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $2 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $300 4d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 5d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $300 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $300 12d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 15d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $300 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $300 21d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 24d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 28d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 30d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $299 31d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $290 34d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $290 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $290 37d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $6 39d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $290 39d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $290 43d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $290 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $290 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $290 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $290 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.84 · official $300.84 (match) · 535 history records