Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DA 0xdac1…badd other 849 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,936 (+6%) realized +$8,120 · open −$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate74%612W / 211L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day44.2pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$4,413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,090
7 days+$1,864
14 days+$6,081
30 days+$6,836
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$7,083
sports 5% +$64
world 0% −$2
culture 0% −$34
politics 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 +33.5% +20.8% 75% 68% -6.4%
≤30d 566 +18.2% +7.0% 77% 68% -3.6%
≤90d 823 +13.3% +2.5% 74% 64% -3.9%
all 823 +13.3% +2.5% 74% 64% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.5% 64% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 49% -13.1%
15% -16.3% 27% -21.5%
20% -24.5% 16% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$129 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$4,413
Realized+$8,120
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses612 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions32
Markets (closed)823 / 849
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$163
Trades / day44.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 823 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists No 73¢ 74¢ $1,127 $1,139 +$12 (+1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists No 86¢ 86¢ $1,118 $1,111 −$6 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $1,096 $908 −$188 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $521 $637 +$116 (+22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $263 $198 −$65 (-25%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals No 68¢ 68¢ $136 $137 +$1 (+1%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 66¢ $16 $37 +$20 (+122%)
Rafael Leão: 1+ assists No 81¢ 90¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
World Cup Goal Contributions H2H: Vitinha vs. Pedri Vitinha 45¢ 40¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 21¢ 22¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Will Harry Kane score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+30%)
Will Sweden be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 88¢ $8 $18 +$10 (+130%)
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 34¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 81¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+35%)
Will Harry Kane score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 78¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+23%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 67¢ $9 $13 +$5 (+52%)
João Félix: 1+ assists No 79¢ 85¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 41¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 75¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will Austria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 44¢ 34¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-22%)
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 72¢ 77¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 22¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 53¢ 18¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-65%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 47¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 192 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Danish People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will RED Canids win CBLOL 2026 Split 1? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Jafel Filho vs. Cody Durden (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will RED Academy win CD 2026 Split 1? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Morgan Rogers: 1+ assists Jun 27 $19 +$8 +43%
Martin Baturina: 1+ assists Jun 27 $810 +$190 +24%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists Jun 27 $670 −$670 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 27 $760 +$240 +32%
Noni Madueke: 1+ assists Jun 27 $392 +$124 +32%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists Jun 27 $1,208 +$321 +27%
Declan Rice: 1+ assists Jun 27 $202 +$47 +24%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $137 −$135 -98%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists Jun 27 $627 −$627 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $230 +$270 +117%
Will Shara Magomedov win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $710 +$690 +97%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 27 $33 +$15 +45%
Will Nazim Sadykhov win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Asu Almabayev win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $98 +$22 +22%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $456 +$177 +39%
Will Charles Johnson win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $130 +$30 +24%
Will Ikram Aliskerov win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $385 +$342 +89%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 27 $89 +$36 +41%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $3 +$5 +163%
Will Brunno Ferreira win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $9 +$3 +35%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 27 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Michal Oleksiejczuk win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $14 +$10 +72%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $2 +$3 +113%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 27 $36 +$17 +47%
Will Farman Hasanov win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $68 +$36 +54%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 27 $139 +$145 +104%
Will Javier Reyes win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $78 +$54 +70%
Will Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $472 −$472 -100%
Will Theodor Berggren win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $279 +$53 +19%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Daniil Donchenko win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Bekzat Almakhan win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $45 +$14 +31%
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 27 $13 +$7 +57%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $222 +$109 +49%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 27 $2 $0 +24%
Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 26 $14 +$6 +43%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ goals Jun 26 $236 +$28 +12%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists Jun 26 $2 $0 +20%
Désiré Doué: 1+ assists Jun 26 $781 +$208 +27%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ goals Jun 26 $491 +$25 +5%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 26 $730 +$270 +37%
Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ assists Jun 26 $166 +$34 +20%
Marcus Thuram: 1+ assists Jun 26 $170 +$30 +18%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $18 +$22 +122%
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ assists Jun 26 $250 −$250 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rafael Leão: 1+ assists BUY No 81¢ $26 0m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY No 86¢ $23 6m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 72¢ $125 6m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 74¢ $326 6m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 74¢ $27 6m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 74¢ $6 6m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 74¢ $28 8m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY No 86¢ $12 9m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY No 86¢ $222 10m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 74¢ $3 10m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 74¢ $2 10m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 74¢ $15 10m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY No 86¢ $216 13m
Jhon Córdoba: 1+ assists BUY No 85¢ $1 15m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY No 86¢ $6 15m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 68¢ $136 17m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 72¢ $39 17m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 72¢ $257 18m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 72¢ $23 19m
Rafael Leão: 1+ assists BUY No 81¢ $0 19m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY No 86¢ $31 20m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 72¢ $13 20m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 72¢ $51 20m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY No 86¢ $11 21m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 72¢ $3 22m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 72¢ $3 23m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY No 86¢ $446 23m
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 72¢ $93 23m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY No 86¢ $6 24m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY No 86¢ $12 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,412.95 · official $4,455.41 (match) · 3500 history records