Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:02:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xdac0…cc7b
weather · 39 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Open positions10
Markets (closed)29 / 39
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 10 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Yes 48¢ 45¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? No 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $1 +$1 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% −$11
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -16.4% -24.4% 31% 31% -27.4%
≤30d 29 -16.4% -24.4% 31% 31% -27.4%
≤90d 29 -16.4% -24.4% 31% 31% -27.4%
all 29 -16.4% -24.4% 31% 31% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 31% -27.4%
10% -31.6% 28% -34.3%
15% -38.2% 28% -40.7%
20% -44.3% 28% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.79 · official $4.79 (match) · 68 history records